- Joined
- Jun 27, 2002
- Messages
- 19,668
- Reaction score
- 10,242
- Points
- 128
I expect this is valuable but surely it should take into account who is taking the shot? If it's me or Leo Messi then the key factor in whether it's likely to result in a goal is probably not the angle or the type of attack.
A fair observation, and there is more than one model that analysts are working with.
If a players individual xG is 10 and they've scored 5 goals then you might presume they are underperforming and/or are lower quality. If the player had scored 15 goals then you might presume they are over performing and/or are higher quality.
If in a given game your xG is 4 but your chances have fallen to your full backs who haven't converted them and you've scored 0 then you would have to take that into account.
My next book is on xG so I'll come back on this once I've finished it.