The standard of the performances

HenryLB

Donator
Bounce Radge
Very simply, xG (or expected goals) is the probability that a shot will result in a goal based on the characteristics of that shot and the events leading up to it. Some of these characteristics/variables include:

  • Location of shooter: How far was it from the goal and at what angle on the pitch?
  • Body part: Was it a header or off the shooter's foot?
  • Type of pass: Was it from a through ball, cross, set piece, etc?
  • Type of attack: Was it from an established possession? Was it off a rebound? Did the defense have time to get in position? Did it follow a dribble?
Every shot is compared to thousands of shots with similar characteristics to determine the probability that this shot will result in a goal. That probability is the expected goal total. An xG of 0 is a certain miss, while an xG of 1 is a certain goal. An xG of .5 would indicate that if identical shots were attempted 10 times, 5 would be expected to result in a goal.

There are a number of xG models that use similar techniques and variables, which attempt to reach the same conclusion.
I expect this is valuable but surely it should take into account who is taking the shot? If it's me or Leo Messi then the key factor in whether it's likely to result in a goal is probably not the angle or the type of attack.
 

Purple & Green

Radge McRadge
Admin
I expect this is valuable but surely it should take into account who is taking the shot? If it's me or Leo Messi then the key factor in whether it's likely to result in a goal is probably not the angle or the type of attack.
A fair observation, and there is more than one model that analysts are working with.

If a players individual xG is 10 and they've scored 5 goals then you might presume they are underperforming and/or are lower quality. If the player had scored 15 goals then you might presume they are over performing and/or are higher quality.

If in a given game your xG is 4 but your chances have fallen to your full backs who haven't converted them and you've scored 0 then you would have to take that into account.

My next book is on xG so I'll come back on this once I've finished it.
 

Hammi

Top radge
Admin
A fair observation, and there is more than one model that analysts are working with.

If a players individual xG is 10 and they've scored 5 goals then you might presume they are underperforming and/or are lower quality. If the player had scored 15 goals then you might presume they are over performing and/or are higher quality.

If in a given game your xG is 4 but your chances have fallen to your full backs who haven't converted them and you've scored 0 then you would have to take that into account.

My next book is on xG so I'll come back on this once I've finished it.
So is it more worthwhile paying attention to a players individual xG over the teams collective?
I like the info tho, I like being able to see what we're doing in different areas and the likes
Got a hold of a hearts scouts report on a team they were playing against year's ago and the detail was very impressive.
These programs must be a game changer for folk like him.
 

EA2007

Last Of The Summer Wine Radge
Bounce Radge
It’s got to stop, this winning away whilst playing well.
It did stop. After Livingston until today.

We played well today so there will be few complaints. There’s nothing wrong with criticising when we are winning. Loads waited until the sheep done us though.

Onwards and upwards.
 

Bossie

Bounce Radge
It did stop. After Livingston until today.

We played well today so there will be few complaints. There’s nothing wrong with criticising when we are winning. Loads waited until the sheep done us though.

Onwards and upwards.
I thought this thread would be overflowing with praise for today's performance from those that have been hyper critical in previous weeks.
 
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