Home and away form this year

HenryLB

Donator
Triggered (not like that) by hibs’ mediocre home form this year I had a look at how teams have performed home vs away in a few leagues. Basically I was wondering if we were particularly standout and if there had been a general trend towards worse home performances, perhaps - obviously- because of no attendance.

I’d preface this by saying I don’t follow much football apart from hibs, so maybe this is covering old ground or has been a big talking point but I was surprised how much of an effect it seems to have had in some leagues while having less impact on others.

In the Scot prem we have the worst disparity, earning nearly half a point less per game at home than away. But fully seven teams of the 12 have negative home advantage. Outwith the uglies only killie, Dundee Utd and Aberdeen have done better at home than away.

In the EPL it’s even more pronounced. The top five have ALL been worse at home than away. In fact only two of the top eleven clubs have had a home advantage this year! Across the whole league it’s just eight teams with more points home than away.

The Scottish championship and league one are much more like you’d expect. Only three teams have been better away across both those. In league two it’s all over the place but I expect home advantage counts for less in that division anyway.

Has anyone seen as big a disparity as Hibs? Short answer, yes. In the EPL Leicester, Man U and Everton. In Scotland L1 and L2: Forfar, Binos, edin city and Albion Rovers. Across the English lower reaches Lincoln city, Charlton and Oldham have all fared very badly at home.

The worst of all? Perhaps unsurprisingly Everton who have managed a whole point less on average at home than away this year.
 

tricky

Legendary Radge
Great stats thanks, was thinking about this the other day when realised we’d won 11 away league games I think it was
 

Greenmachine

Aulder Than The Internet This Radge
Good thread.

I've moaned a fair bit this season about Hibs mediocre home record and form compared to our fantastic away form. Based on those stats it's clear just how much of a factor having no fans at your stadium plays in the way the team performs. Basically, football without fans is pointless. It's bad enough for a fan not being able to go to the games, for the players it must be really difficult to adapt to playing every week in empty stadiums. All the players in every club in the country deserve credit for the way they have adapted to this unprecedented situation.
 
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HenryLB

Donator
Thread starter
Good thread.

I've moaned a fair bit this season about Hibs mediocre home record and form compared to our fantastic away form. based on those stats it's clear just how much of a factor having no fans at your stadium plays in the way the team performs. Basically, football without fans is pointless. It;s bad eneough a fan not being able to go to the games, for the players it must be really difficult to adapt to playing every week in empty stadiums. All the players in every club in the country deserve credit for the way they have adapted to this unprecedented situation.
Yes I agree. My feeling is that had this been a ‘normal’ season we’d probably have had slightly worse away form and slightly more points at home. Expecting it to do much more than even itself out is wishful thinking.
 

OrkneyHibiscus

New radge
Great post. I've wondered about this for a while now but fascinating to see it across different leagues. What'll be really interesting is when fans return, what impact that'll have, will players have gotten too used to playing in front of no-one or will they be glad to have them back?
 

HenryLB

Donator
Thread starter
Great post. I've wondered about this for a while now but fascinating to see it across different leagues. What'll be really interesting is when fans return, what impact that'll have, will players have gotten too used to playing in front of no-one or will they be glad to have them back?
I was thinking about that too. I expect most will welcome it - I don’t think you get into pro football to play in empty stadiums - but I wonder if there might be a swing back to even more pronounced home advantage next season. Or perhaps the ‘home’ bubble will have been burst for good. It’ll be fascinating to see.
 

HibsSM1979

Just A Radge
I described Everton last night to a mate as fucking shite. That was how I described Hibs performance at home to St Johnstone.
I don’t take a lot of notice of football down here I have to admit but haven’t Everton spent a decent amount of money to?
 

HibsSM1979

Just A Radge
Fucking donut of a man. He gets grace at Barca as he scored the goal at Wembley that won Barca their first European Cup (I was there, with a big Hibs flag!).
Been a woeful season for them and I do admit I have a soft spot for Barca. Silly points dropped has cost them the league and they seem a long way away from winning the Champions league these days. Their defence is terrible
 

Rocky

Well-Known Radge
A wee table for the stattos out there:

HomeVsAway.JPG

It shows the difference between Home Goals scored and away goals scored for the past two seasons. Eg in Greece (G1) Home goals in 2019/20 were 52% higher than away goals (342 vs 225) but that difference dropped to 12% (278 Home / 249 Away) in 2020/21, a drop of 40 percentage points.

In the English Premier League home advantage (in terms of goals scored) has been eliminated completely, having previously been 26%. France is another big mover with home advantage dropping from 45% to 4% in the top division, but bizarrely going in the other direction (up from 9% to 28%) in the second tier.

German Bundesliga (D1) has also bucked the trend with Home advantage increasing this season compared to last.

Scottish Premier (SC0) has dropped from 31% to 10% and Scottish League 2 (SC3) has gone as far as introducing an Away advantage with Home goals 3% lower than away goals (albeit their season was severely curtailed).
 

HibsSM1979

Just A Radge
Good thread.

I've moaned a fair bit this season about Hibs mediocre home record and form compared to our fantastic away form. Based on those stats it's clear just how much of a factor having no fans at your stadium plays in the way the team performs. Basically, football without fans is pointless. It's bad enough for a fan not being able to go to the games, for the players it must be really difficult to adapt to playing every week in empty stadiums. All the players in every club in the country deserve credit for the way they have adapted to this unprecedented situation.
Great point. Of course, we still follow our teams and this Saturday is huge and I’ll be overjoyed if we win the cup but it has been a terrible year for football without fans. It isn’t the same. I know Wembley was nowhere near it’s capacity for the English final on Saturday, but still, just showed the difference in having some fans back brought to the occasion.
 

Rocky

Well-Known Radge
Also, out of the 404 teams I have details for, 84 of them have gone from scoring more Home than Away goals in 2019/20 to having a better Away goalscoring record in 2020/21. So we're far from alone!
 

HenryLB

Donator
Thread starter
A wee table for the stattos out there:

View attachment 4943

It shows the difference between Home Goals scored and away goals scored for the past two seasons. Eg in Greece (G1) Home goals in 2019/20 were 52% higher than away goals (342 vs 225) but that difference dropped to 12% (278 Home / 249 Away) in 2020/21, a drop of 40 percentage points.

In the English Premier League home advantage (in terms of goals scored) has been eliminated completely, having previously been 26%. France is another big mover with home advantage dropping from 45% to 4% in the top division, but bizarrely going in the other direction (up from 9% to 28%) in the second tier.

German Bundesliga (D1) has also bucked the trend with Home advantage increasing this season compared to last.

Scottish Premier (SC0) has dropped from 31% to 10% and Scottish League 2 (SC3) has gone as far as introducing an Away advantage with Home goals 3% lower than away goals (albeit their season was severely curtailed).
Really interesting (at least to me!), thank you for adding.

It’s notable that when you think you’ve seen a pattern (eg top leagues tend to have the biggest swing, presumably because fans count more in those divisions, there being more of them) something comes along to buck the trend, like the Bundesliga.
 
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