Covid -19 Graphs Scotland

[Jack]

 

[Jack]

 

[Purple & Green]

Anyone qualified to suggest where we go from here?

Interesting bit of chat on one of my WhatsApp groups that we are very close to being back to normal. I can't see it myself.

 

[moathibby]

Murray bucking the trend.

 

[Jack]

Anyone qualified to suggest where we go from here?

Interesting bit of chat on one of my WhatsApp groups that we are very close to being back to normal. I can't see it myself.

Probably not. The experts from the Spanish Flu are long dead! It did leave us a graph though that has been pretty much replicated by endemics/pandemics since. Spanish Flu faded out about a year or so after the second wave.

I was involved with the Scottish Government response for the last near miss, H1N1, it just fizzled out but it did leave a graph! That one, although with many fewer deaths, lasted about 18/24 months after the second wave.

I suspect the bigger picture will be in 2 parts.

1. How we, the UK, moves on being relatively covid free at the moment. Cautiously opening up if we're smart. The high numbers up north just now or last autumn nationwide serves as a warning how easily this can still go wrong.

2. How the rest of the world copes. I might suggest the high point of the second wave was January although there wasn't such a pronounced dip between then and now so we might still be in the second wave. The period we're in now is still very high numbers and the third wave is generally very small. We're at a confusing part of the graph, vaccine effect causing lower than expected numbers; India being assholes causing higher than expected numbers????

Until its under control around the world we are vulnerable. Restricting international travel is key, in my opinion.

 

[Jack]

 

[Jack]

​

 

[Weehibbydrew]

Wow!

 

[HibsSM1979]

Just reading of a surge in the Indian variant in this country. Prophets of doom and gloom coming out predicting more lockdowns. Tired of it all

 

[Greenmachine]

Just reading of a surge in the Indian variant in this country. Prophets of doom and gloom coming out predicting more lockdowns. Tired of it all

I don't think there will be another national lockdown.

There will definitely be spikes in infections and another wave of Covid later on in the year, but the vaccines will be be upgraded to cope with whatever new variants come along, and there will continue to be better treatments developed to stop people getting really ill and having to be hospitalised.

 

[HibsSM1979]

I don't think there will be another national lockdown.

There will definitely be spikes in infections and another wave of Covid later on in the year, but the vaccines will be be upgraded to cope with whatever new variants come along, and there will continue to be better treatments developed to stop people getting really ill and having to be hospitalised.

Aye think you are right mate and I think I’ll have to stay away from reading about it in the media cos it’s all catastrophic and doom. No wonder people are struggling. The media are part of that.

 

[Greenmachine]

Aye think you are right mate and I think I’ll have to stay away from reading about it in the media cos it’s all catastrophic and doom. No wonder people are struggling. The media are part of that.

Agreed.
I'm sick of it all as well.

 

[Rocky]

Just reading of a surge in the Indian variant in this country. Prophets of doom and gloom coming out predicting more lockdowns. Tired of it all

The vaccines seem to be effective against that variant too, I don't think it's a big deal. We just need to ca' canny for another 4-6 weeks and we should be pretty much home and dry imo. I'd keep international travel near as dammit shut down for the rest of the year but other than that I reckon back to normal by August.

 

[HibsSM1979]

The vaccines seem to be effective against that variant too, I don't think it's a big deal. We just need to ca' canny for another 4-6 weeks and we should be pretty much home and dry imo. I'd keep international travel near as dammit shut down for the rest of the year but other than that I reckon back to normal by August.

agreed. I love travel and going abroad but still think it has risks. Prepared to can it this year

 

[Rocky]

agreed. I love travel and going abroad but still think it has risks. Prepared to can it this year

Although I was looking at a wee break to Tenerife for November right enough. Won't be the same if you can't fill your chops at the all inclusive buffet though so I'll just be patient.

 

[Greenmachine]

Hoping to go the the states next year.
Really hoping by that time I can do that without having to take a test, self-isolate, quarantine or wear a face mask for six hours.

 

[Jack]

 

[Jack]

 

[Jack]

 

[Jack]

YESTERDAY.

Didn't upload for some reason, I probably forgot to hit the button!

Today's isn't available yet.

 

[Jack]

Oh dear!

 

[1875]

Oh dear!

View attachment 4912

 

[HibsSM1979]

Seems cases generallh going up across the uk as a whole today. Let’s hope it doesn’t translate into increasing serious illness and puts us emerging out of lockdown in question

 

[Greenmachine]

Seems cases generallh going up across the uk as a whole today. Let’s hope it doesn’t translate into increasing serious illness and puts us emerging out of lockdown in question

As we ease out of lockdown we are bound to see cases rise as more people are together. We just have to manage the situation carefully...this is what we are going to have to do from now on with Covid.

 

[HibsSM1979]

As we ease out of lockdown we are bound to see cases rise as more people are together. We just have to manage the situation carefully...this is what we are going to have to do from now on with Covid.

Agreed and for my tuppence worth, I think those who have argued for the speeding up of coming out of lockdown should be shot down now. I hate these restrictions as much as anyone and crave as close a return to normality as anyone to but we can’t rush it and take risks that will knock us back to square one

 

[Jack]

 

[Jack]

 

[Jack]

Yesterday

 

[Jack]

 

[1875]

View attachment 4932

Ouch!

 

[Jack]

Not the ideal run up to opening up!

 

[HaarlemShuffler]

Not the ideal run up to opening up!

View attachment 4938

ooft!

 

[stairways_second_coming]

Not the ideal run up to opening up!

View attachment 4938

It's been good to watch thanks but it's clearly ridiculous now. The cases simply haven't quadrupled in the last few weeks in edin. It would be front page news. The r is between 0.8 and 1 not 3+

It'll be due to the numbers being so low now using that app. probably 2 people logging symptoms a few weeks ago and 8 today. Cases in Edinburgh have had a small bump up in the last week 20% but from a low point and still tiny 26/100,000. It's been pretty flat for 3 weeks before . Following the graph we'd be at February levels in a month or so , thankfully that's nuts

 

[Rocky]

It's been good to watch thanks but it's clearly ridiculous now. The cases simply haven't quadrupled in the last few weeks in edin. It would be front page news. The r is between 0.8 and 1 not 3+

It'll be due to the numbers being so low now using that app. probably 2 people logging symptoms a few weeks ago and 8 today. Cases in Edinburgh have had a small bump up in the last week 20% but from a low point and still tiny 26/100,000. It's been pretty flat for 3 weeks before . Following the graph we'd be at February levels in a month or so , thankfully that's nuts

They changed the calculation which is why it's showing a big increase. The reason for the change was that they worked out that the contributors to the study are more likely to be vaccinated than the wider population (89% of contributors are vaccinated) so it was under reporting if they didn't make the adjustment.

Overall the current numbers look about right, eg using the number you quote of 26 per 100,000 population per week: 26 / 100,000 x 525,000 (Edinburgh population) / 7 days x 16 days (average length of time a case is 'active') = 312. I'm not sure if they factor in asymptomatic, but if they do and we assume 20% asymptomatic then 312 / 80% = 390, so 374 is certainly in the right ball park. The issue is the previous numbers being too low which makes the trend look bad.

 

[stairways_second_coming]

They changed the calculation which is why it's showing a big increase. The reason for the change was that they worked out that the contributors to the study are more likely to be vaccinated than the wider population (89% of contributors are vaccinated) so it was under reporting if they didn't make the adjustment.

Overall the current numbers look about right, eg using the number you quote of 26 per 100,000 population per week: 26 / 100,000 x 525,000 (Edinburgh population) / 7 days x 16 days (average length of time a case is 'active') = 312. I'm not sure if they factor in asymptomatic, but if they do and we assume 20% asymptomatic then 312 / 80% = 390, so 374 is certainly in the right ball park. The issue is the previous numbers being too low which makes the trend look bad.

But the point is you can't change the parameters and keep the graph its ridiculous. Apart from that zoe for the last 2 months or so has had city's numbers halving/doubling in a matter of days. It also had uk as a whole with an r of .4 a while back which unfortunately was impossible. We are testing over a million a day in the UK use this official graphs they are much more accurate.

 

[Jack]

 

[Jack]

 

[Jack]

 

[Jack]

 

[Jack]