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Covid -19 Graphs Scotland

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Its not a Scottish one this but its important to remember that its the elderly population that gets hardest hit and even then over 80% of people over 80 survive.

Under the age of 60 and no matter how bad you feel, statistically speaking you aren't going to die.
 
View media item 235
Its not a Scottish one this but its important to remember that its the elderly population that gets hardest hit and even then over 80% of people over 80 survive.

Under the age of 60 and no matter how bad you feel, statistically speaking you aren't going to die.
Gulp
 
How is Poland coping?

Hard to say really. There were rumours of the virus being here way before the first official confirmed case but there was (and continues to be) a real lack of testing. Currently they say we have 750 across the country &, given its a much much weaker healthcare system than the NHS, I expect things are going to get nasty.

They did however take early preventative action with a strong message, closing everything down in one fell swoop, so the vast majority of people are taking the situation very seriously. I'm pretty impressed with just how orderly everyone is in terms of patient, spaced-out queueing at shops, chemists etc. but I guess they got lots of practice at that back in the communist era :D
 
 
Hard to say really. There were rumours of the virus being here way before the first official confirmed case but there was (and continues to be) a real lack of testing. Currently they say we have 750 across the country &, given its a much much weaker healthcare system than the NHS, I expect things are going to get nasty.

They did however take early preventative action with a strong message, closing everything down in one fell swoop, so the vast majority of people are taking the situation very seriously. I'm pretty impressed with just how orderly everyone is in terms of patient, spaced-out queueing at shops, chemists etc. but I guess they got lots of practice at that back in the communist era :D


Hmmm that'll be the reason I'm in work upgrading modems bound for Poland so they can sit a warehouse for months . It all makes sense now
 
I had all the symptoms about 4-5 weeks ago. Felt like shit and had a bad cough and all the other symptoms. Went to the doctor and they swabbed me for bronchitis, wasn’t that. They just have me steroids that ended up making me itch like fuck. Felt like crap for about two weeks, but just went about my daily life. Hopefully it wasn’t this and it wasn’t spread.
 
View media item 238
I guess this is going to be the same from now on as its clear Scotland growth rate in cases is fortunately moving at a lower rate than many other places.

As long as we keep to the lockdown rules that should be maintained.

I will avoid any death graphics or statistics from now on as enough gloom out there.
 
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I guess this is going to be the same from now on as its clear Scotland growth rate in cases is fortunately moving at a lower rate than many other places.

As long as we keep to the lockdown rules that should be maintained.

I will avoid any death graphics or statistics from now on as enough gloom out there.


Surely that graph is the result to be expected when we have a much smaller population and smaller amount of testing
 
Surely that graph is the result to be expected when we have a much smaller population and smaller amount of testing

Its the shape of the curve that's the positive part rather than height which as you say comes from population or testing.
 
I had all the symptoms about 4-5 weeks ago. Felt like shit and had a bad cough and all the other symptoms. Went to the doctor and they swabbed me for bronchitis, wasn’t that. They just have me steroids that ended up making me itch like fuck. Felt like crap for about two weeks, but just went about my daily life. Hopefully it wasn’t this and it wasn’t spread.
This covers at least a dozen folk i know including myself,you do wonder.
Getting tested is the only way to know now.
 
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Interesting developments today when much further down the line Scotland might have to look for Scottish solutions as our demographics are different from England.

First Minister for first time I have heard was projecting very far ahead talking about specific area solutions.

"Cluster hot spots" seems to be the term used a lot in the Far East but needs massives of testing to isolate problem areas.

Orkney and Western Issues could become easy to protect once mass testing and possible cluster quartintine stations get set up throughout Scotland if thats the way they go after the current firefighting is finished.

Current serious problem you would imagine is in Glasgow area.

First Minister and Health minister acknowledged our curve is behind England's which buys us time and hopefully no need in Scotland for that scary super hospital currently being built in London.
 
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Deri Sridhar on Twitter is a good follow.

She is Professor of Public Health at Edinburgh University and seems right on the ball as to how Asians countries are right on track to clear the virus.

I think the Scottish government set up a more specific high level advice group today for use much further down the line.

There was also a lot of worry in the stats world today at how late the English figures were.

All sorts of ominous fear about the numbers but in the end happily good.
 
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After the UK government made that catastrophic error about "herd immunity" losing about 6 weeks in planning time they seem to have upped their game considerably in increasing the staffing of the NHS and providing the neccessay equipment as all sorts of positive stats out there.
 
On Radio Forth at the weekend Kat had just returned from holiday in Vietnam. She'd been 'tested' 6 times one day, if I recall correctly, going between shopping malls. The test was a IR thermometer and if anyone's temperature was over x.x° they were whisked away and given the proper virus test. As she was never over we didn't find out what happened next although I would assume isolation of some sort.

Of course some Far East countries were better prepared having collectively shit themselves with SARS a few years back.

Once the millions of new testing kits become available here in the UK and the priority folk are done I'd hope we would go down a similar route.
 
On Radio Forth at the weekend Kat had just returned from holiday in Vietnam. She'd been 'tested' 6 times one day, if I recall correctly, going between shopping malls. The test was a IR thermometer and if anyone's temperature was over x.x° they were whisked away and given the proper virus test. As she was never over we didn't find out what happened next although I would assume isolation of some sort.

Of course some Far East countries were better prepared having collectively shit themselves with SARS a few years back.

Once the millions of new testing kits become available here in the UK and the priority folk are done I'd hope we would go down a similar route.

I think you are right as what we are doing just now is fire fighting to buy time so the NHS isn't swamped.

Its not a solution as everything just jumps back up again once "normality" returns so you go to "lockdown" again and then get stuck in a never ending cycle.

I have the same experience in Far East and my country Malaysia take it one step further and identify a "cluster hotspot" then order compulsory quarunntine of anyone found infected in that area.

PS Who the FCK is Kat.?
 
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This is very up to date and interesting as we shouldn't be having dips.

I think the explanation given was that Scotland's curve is much further behind England and especially London and so its not yet fully developed.

A lot of ameatur statistics guys modeling are very annoyed with Public Health England as they dont give specific London figures or at least if they do they are harder to find.

It makes comparisons with Madrid, New York and of course the source at Wuhan very difficult because one of the modelling secrets is projecting when you will hit your peak.
 
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Not a graphic this time. Just a picture of one selfish CNT who together with his Ma and Paw and the rest of the weans who just use Scotland as their private play ground.?'s.
 
View media item 240
This is very up to date and interesting as we shouldn't be having dips.

I think the explanation given was that Scotland's curve is much further behind England and especially London and so its not yet fully developed.

A lot of statistics guys modeling are very annoyed with Public Health England as they dont give specific London figures or at least if they do they are harder to find.

It makes comparisons with Madrid, New York and of course the source at Wuhan very difficult because one of the modelling secrets is projecting when you will hit your peak.
This boy is posting a lot of stats from around the world...
 
I think you are right as what we are doing just now is fire fighting to buy time so the NHS isn't swamped.

Its not a solution as everything just jumps back up again once "normality" returns so you go to "lockdown" again and then get stuck in a never ending cycle.

I have the same experience in Far East and my country Malaysia take it one step further and identify a "cluster hotspot" then order compulsory quarunntine of anyone found infected in that area.

PS Who the FCK is Kat.?
It's Cat. I just assumed as she was a cleb type she'd spell it wrongly!

 
I had all the symptoms about 4-5 weeks ago. Felt like shit and had a bad cough and all the other symptoms. Went to the doctor and they swabbed me for bronchitis, wasn’t that. They just have me steroids that ended up making me itch like fuck. Felt like crap for about two weeks, but just went about my daily life. Hopefully it wasn’t this and it wasn’t spread.
I had the worst chest infection I have ever had during the month of December and into January, and it lasted for 5 or 6 weeks. At times I was struggling to breathe (almost asthmatic and I have never had asthma), and the cough was horrendous. Worst period was early to mid-December. I was blocked up as well, but I didn't have a fever or anything like that, however I had to take time off my work something I have rarely done and hate doing. My dad caught it from me and his cough lasted weeks as well. I don't know if this was a forerunner to Covid-19 but the symptoms were very similar like what you had.
 
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View media item 240
This is very up to date and interesting as we shouldn't be having dips.

I think the explanation given was that Scotland's curve is much further behind England and especially London and so its not yet fully developed.

A lot of statistics guys modeling are very annoyed with Public Health England as they dont give specific London figures or at least if they do they are harder to find.

It makes comparisons with Madrid, New York and of course the source at Wuhan very difficult because one of the modelling secrets is projecting when you will hit your peak.

You just need to know where to look. On this link figures for London are on the 5th page, NHS Regions. You'll maybe be interested in the pages before that too.

 
View media item 240
This is very up to date and interesting as we shouldn't be having dips.

I think the explanation given was that Scotland's curve is much further behind England and especially London and so its not yet fully developed.

A lot of statistics guys modeling are very annoyed with Public Health England as they dont give specific London figures or at least if they do they are harder to find.

It makes comparisons with Madrid, New York and of course the source at Wuhan very difficult because one of the modelling secrets is projecting when you will hit your peak.

There was specific numbers for each London burgh on the online guardian pages.
 
Interesting development from Public Health England who are going to change the way they report "Death Statistics".

Something to do with "needing consent of the relatives" which sounds mighty tenuous for aggregated data.

England's figures yesterday were very confusing, late and an admission they weren't 24 hours hence the positive drop.

Speculation that its a way to massage the figures lower but the reverse argument is that if you do that then the general public get much more relaxed and won't adhere to the lockdown extensions so you make the matter worse as well as losing trust.

Death stats is quite a horrible subject but it can't make sense that Germany population 100million has 200 casualties whereas Italy 8,000, Spain 6000 and Russia nil so there is obviously different measuring techniques out there.

Understandably so if a poor person has multiple underlying conditions then what was the real cause.

That's the sort of question journalists should be asking the First Minister today to see if Scotland follows suit to the English model rather than some playpark in East Kilbride where the kids were playing on the swings.

Important to remember amongst all the lurid headlines that 30,000 people will die annually in Scotland and one of the more solid Covid 19 predictions looked like adding 1,800 to that sad total and its older people over 75 with underlying conditions most at risk plus the other risk categories.

Its a brutal virus but not one that decimates younger healthy people.
 
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Its a brutal virus but not one that decimates younger healthy people.


Cheers.

:17:
 
Easy way to get them showing true figure...EU asks for official figures with death certificate...those countries with fewer deaths or disruption pay more in to help other...you will soon see true figures :D
 
Easy way to get them showing true figure...EU asks for official figures with death certificate...those countries with fewer deaths or disruption pay more in to help other...you will soon see true figures :D

That's interesting thanks.

There must be big dilemmas developing for Doctors signing death certificates for patients with a multiple of conditions.

Horrible subject but another example of the ethical problems and huge decision making front line medical professionals have to face that we rarely have to think about.
 
Maybe I have missed it, but does anyone have any idea why Italy has ended up with such a high death rate ? They seemed to be the first European country to suffer from the outbreak, however there appears to be no stopping it in there to any degree, and if anything there are even more deaths occurring there ?
Possibly there is a higher elderly population in he north of Italy ? also they are a very family orientated country and many families have generations who live together, this may possibly have some bearing on it.
I've read elsewhere that alot of it has to do with Italian fashion houses in northern Italy using factories in Wuhan to produce their goods. Daily flights from Milan to Wuhan, long incubation period of virus, Italian families living 3 generations together, and kissing instead of the presbyterian nod of acknowledgement all combined to cause disaster.


My wife has Covid19, she's been laid low since Saturday. Not bad enough to go to hospital, but she's feeling terrible. She also had the same thing you mention in December and tells me that was MUCH worse..
 
Interesting development from Public Health England who are going to change the way they report "Death Statistics".

Something to do with "needing consent of the relatives" which sounds mighty tenuous for aggregated data.

England's figures yesterday were very confusing, late and an admission they weren't 24 hours hence the positive drop.

Speculation that its a way to massage the figures lower but the reverse argument is that if you do that then the general public get much more relaxed and won't adhere to the lockdown extensions so you make the matter worse as well as losing trust.

Death stats is quite a horrible subject but it can't make sense that Germany population 100million has 200 casualties whereas Italy 8,000, Spain 6000 and Russia nil so there is obviously different measuring techniques out there.

Understandably so if a poor person has multiple underlying conditions then what was the real cause.

That's the sort of question journalists should be asking the First Minister today to see if Scotland follows suit to the English model rather than some playpark in East Kilbride where the kids were playing on the swings.

Important to remember amongst all the lurid headlines that 30,000 people will die annually in Scotland and one of the more solid Covid 19 predictions looked like adding 1,800 to that sad total and its older people over 75 with underlying conditions most at risk plus the other risk categories.

Its a brutal virus but not one that decimates younger healthy people.
On the wireless this morning a doctor was saying actual numbers were way higher for those infected in Scotland. We knew that. Don't get scared if I say 30/40,000.

The issue I have and posted about yesterday was the SG/NHS have a surveillance system linked to 41 GP Practices around the country. This has worked well for many years FOR SURVEILLANCE. Yesterday's moan was this didn't fight the fire just informed as to how big the fire was.

Todays moan is that the SG are not passing the intelligence gained from that cohort of practices.

If, let's say, 100 people from that cohort are tested and 40 are infected these are the numbers that will be published. But what the SG and NHS statisticians then do with that information is build up a very accurate picture of what the figures are nationally. These are the numbers that will make people sit up in a " WTF, did she really day that?" sort of way and probably the figures that doctor had sight of this morning.
 
On the wireless this morning a doctor was saying actual numbers were way higher for those infected in Scotland. We knew that. Don't get scared if I say 30/40,000.

The issue I have and posted about yesterday was the SG/NHS have a surveillance system linked to 41 GP Practices around the country. This has worked well for many years FOR SURVEILLANCE. Yesterday's moan was this didn't fight the fire just informed as to how big the fire was.

Todays moan is that the SG are not passing the intelligence gained from that cohort of practices.

If, let's say, 100 people from that cohort are tested and 40 are infected these are the numbers that will be published. But what the SG and NHS statisticians then do with that information is build up a very accurate picture of what the figures are nationally. These are the numbers that will make people sit up in a " WTF, did she really day that?" sort of way and probably the figures that doctor had sight of this morning.

At today's press conference the Health secretary gave the number of 40,000 to 50,000 people in Scotland have Covid-19 in her estimation. No doubt estimated from your 41 GP practices plus additional testing.

In many cases it will be so mild that they barley notice.

Seemed pretty confident in her numbers and you would have thought this is a far more important (and frightening) statistic than the 894 confirmed which is just hospital testing.

Really should help the "Stay at home" message if numbers like that got more prominence.
 
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Guys laying fibre optic cables in drunbrae didnt look 2 feet apart never mind 2 metres
 
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The Professor of global public health at Edinburgh University is looking at the end game now for Scotland whenever that may be.

Highly impressive woman especially when interviewed and is begining to rack up the media appearances.

Fascinating when looking at her past interviews as way ahead of the curve though this South Korean type model is a tough one to implement.
 

I wonder if she is on the advisory committee being set up by the Scottish Government. Hope so.
 
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Don't watch Question Time normally, but I watched it tonight and the panellist who I think was a doctor painted a very pessimistic picture about the length of time this country will be dealing with Covid-19 based on how long it took Rohun City in China to deal with it. A city of 11 Million people has been in total lock-down since mid February and they are expected to possibly start lifting restrictions in about early to mid April. . He said we will need 12 weeks minimum with total lock-down, and even then he said the virus was likley to come back two or three times later on in the year. IMO this country will not be able to cope with that sort of scenario. Businesses are struggling to survive even this early into it never mind the social problems this will cause. Firms and self-employed people having to get massive emergency state payments made just to get them through the next couple of months. God knows what state we are going to be in come the summer and into the autumn if all the restrictions are still in place then.
 
Much relief in the stats and modeling world tonight when Public Health England published its figures on time tonight and seemed to move to a 24 hour reporting period to 5:00pm ready for publication the next day.

Feels similar to NHS Scotlands reporting time line.

No further negative comment on the possible change in measurement by Public Health England which is excellent news and so retains trust in the stats.

Numbers weren't good though with London suffering most of all.

Sweden now having problems and thinking of just isolating Stockholm only. Short-term thinking.
 
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This mornings flight arrivals at Edinburgh airport where there are absolutely no checks at the UK border entry points for Covid 19.

France for example has a far worse Covid 19 problem than Scotland yet the CDG flight will arrive and the passengers depart with no checks at all.

This will also happen all over the English airports as well hence you can have lockdowns for whatever period you want and you will dampen and flatten the curve but you can never eliminate the threat.

Its all about getting Covid 19 down to a manageable level which to be fair to the UK government they are beginning to quietly educate people on as for about 98% of the population it isn't a life threatening disease.

Many South East Asian countries ensure all new arrivals go through thermal imaging scanners looking for fever.

Others actually physically quarrintine new arrivals for up to 14 days which takes this up another level but you can hardly see Scotland being able to achieve that level of security.
 
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This mornings flight arrivals at Edinburgh airport where there are absolutely no checks at the UK border entry points for Covid 19.

France for example has a far worse Covid 19 problem than Scotland yet the CDG flight will arrive and the passengers depart with no checks at all.

This will also happen all over the English airports as well hence you can have lockdowns for whatever period you want and you will dampen and flatten the curve but you can never eliminate the threat.

Its all about getting Covid 19 down to a manageable level which to be fair to the UK government they are beginning to quietly educate people on as for about 98% of the population it isn't a life threatening disease.

Many South East Asian countries ensure all new arrivals go through thermal imaging scanners looking for fever.

Others actually physically quarrintine new arrivals for up to 14 days which takes this up another level but you can hardly see Scotland being able to achieve that level of security.

Are we beginning to see a flattening of the curve as a result of the lockdown measures in place yet?
 
Are we beginning to see a flattening of the curve as a result of the lockdown measures in place yet?
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Scotland lags quite a way behind England and the lockdown very rightly was put in place to save London where over a third of the cases were active and the hospitals were projected to being overwhelmed so it was definitely the correct call.

But at the moment its far to early to say where the curve actually is though of course governments with computer modeling techniques will have a far better idea.

Lockdown works though in flattening the curve as there are so many examples worldwide but it just takes a long time.

A similar country to Scotland in Denmark just extended their lock down from 2 to 4 weeks as did my other country Malaysia which also extended by 2 to 4 weeks.

France and Italy from what I have read seem to be thinking the same. President Macron of France talked about extending from 2 to 6 weeks so you can take that as a gimmie that an extension will happen in France.

It seems to be that countries put initial lockdowns in place but then gradually extend the period of time.

Sorry not to find any positives at all.?
 
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Here's the Professor again explaining that lockdown is a time buying exercise not a solution.
 
The UK cases include Scotland - but its not a straight deduction because the series are on different timelines.

View media item 244
Scotland lags quite a way behind England and the lockdown very rightly was put in place to save London where over a third of the cases were active and the hospitals were projected to being overwhelmed so it was definitely the correct call.
 
I would agree with that.

I liked the honesty at todays Scotland NHS press conference when they updated the numbers of probable infections in Scotland to 65,000 people.

That's the ever increasing number to get out there to reinforce the "stay at home" message.

Get that number under control then you reduce the positive confirmed cases in hospitals and then the number of deaths.

Even though its an estimate you can mathematically work it out from the wads of statistical data throughout the world.
 

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