Covid -19 Graphs Scotland

Zab

Admin
Have you got the data confirming that this is the case?

This is per https://data.gov.scot/coronavirus-covid-19/detail.html#deaths for the whole of Scotland.

7 days up to 31st May 2021:
COVID cases in the last 7 days - 509.7
COVID deaths in last 7 days - 3

7 days up to 28th May 2020:
COVID cases in the last 7 days - 51.1
COVID deaths in last 7 days - 131

So based on the same time period last year, there were significantly more deaths than this year, yet more cases this year.

I guess my overall point is that this data isn’t the same measuring stick now as it was in the past.
 

Smurf

Auld Enuff Tae Know Better This Radge
This is per https://data.gov.scot/coronavirus-covid-19/detail.html#deaths for the whole of Scotland.

7 days up to 31st May 2021:
COVID cases in the last 7 days - 509.7
COVID deaths in last 7 days - 3

7 days up to 28th May 2020:
COVID cases in the last 7 days - 51.1
COVID deaths in last 7 days - 131

So based on the same time period last year, there were significantly more deaths than this year, yet more cases this year.

I guess my overall point is that this data isn’t the same measuring stick now as it was in the past.
It's not a like-for-like comparison though is it?

This time last year cases were on a huge downward trajectory after the first wave. We are now in the beginning of a fourth wave....

So I don't think that we can extrapolate from they stats that's there's not the same correlation between cases and deaths TBH....
 

Zab

Admin
It's not a like-for-like comparison though is it?

This time last year cases were on a huge downward trajectory after the first wave. We are now in the beginning of a fourth wave....

So I don't think that we can extrapolate from they stats that's there's not the same correlation between cases and deaths TBH....

Of course it’s not like for like, last year we never had a vaccine... Which is kind of my point, cases used to be a good metric but the variables have significantly changed.

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest that we start to use the deaths/hospitalisation statistics as the key driver in policy going forward.
 

Smurf

Auld Enuff Tae Know Better This Radge
Of course it’s not like for like, last year we never had a vaccine... Which is kind of my point, cases used to be a good metric but the variables have significantly changed.

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest that we start to use the deaths/hospitalisation statistics as the key driver in policy going forward.

However, you made a point and haven't been able to back it up! With everything I've read we just yet don't know how cases of this Indian variant will turn into hospitalisation and then death. All experts I'm following say it's too early to know.
 

Zab

Admin
However, you made a point and haven't been able to back it up! With everything I've read we just yet don't know how cases of this Indian variant will turn into hospitalisation and then death. All experts I'm following say it's too early to know.

It’s impossible to back anything up using the historical data, it’s unreliable for a number of reasons: volume of tests available, quality of tests, the context of the overall discuss has changed several times in terms of different variants and now the vaccine rollout... the one stat that is definitive is death rate, and it’s down significantly.
 

aggie

Justified Radge
It's the trend... IF (And I stress if..) these cases go how previous have then a percentage of these numbers will end up in hospital and a percentage of them will die.
Perhaps, but that in itself at that level is no longer a proportional justification for further lockdowns/restrictions, imo.
 
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Jack

Aulder Than The Internet This Radge
Of course it’s not like for like, last year we never had a vaccine... Which is kind of my point, cases used to be a good metric but the variables have significantly changed.

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest that we start to use the deaths/hospitalisation statistics as the key driver in policy going forward.
I think perhaps the politicians and MSM are just using the number of cases because they have been since the start and its easy for the population to understand.

I'm sure the figures used by the government(s) in making decisions will come from many sources, cover lots of variables and be way over most folks heads unless you're a nerdy statistician! I'm pretty certain though that there will be some sort of correlation between case numbers and the number of folk ending up in hospital, many fewer than previously.

I read recently that the average number of days folk need in hospital has halved between the waves and cases less severe so there's another bonus.

As @Smurf says above, apart from being more transmissible, the Delta (Indian) variant is still pretty much unknown beyond that so no matter how good the governments matrix how it will impact on the NHS is uncertain. It seems 2 jags do the business but with a big proportion of the population still to have their first dose its a race against time.
 

aggie

Justified Radge
It's not a like-for-like comparison though is it?

This time last year cases were on a huge downward trajectory after the first wave. We are now in the beginning of a fourth wave....

So I don't think that we can extrapolate from they stats that's there's not the same correlation between cases and deaths TBH....
Genuinely curious - does any rise in cases constitute a "wave"?
 
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Smurf

Auld Enuff Tae Know Better This Radge
Genuinely curious - does any rise in cases constitute a "wave"?

Well if wasn't around or it had been previously in decline...

I'm sick to the fuckin back teeth of Rona. I hate her. I'm desperate for some semblance of normality back into our lives. However, I want us to move forward safely and cautiously.... Otherwise it just bites us in the arse.
 

Smurf

Auld Enuff Tae Know Better This Radge
Her saying it doesn't make it fact though. People back in pubs, facemasks not being worn, more meeting up, hugging, kissing. Its how the thing spreads.

I am wound up by all of this today TBH. I can't be arsed more looking into it as it'll only increase my anger... However, Is it right that THOUSANDS will be able to congregate to watch the Euro's in Glasgow Green? However, a few weeks ago when there was less cases 600 couldn't get into Hampden for a national final? Fitba fans in this country should be ramping up pressure on the authorities ahead of them restricting numbers massively ahead of the new season. Again, we will be used as a way of communicating a message.
 

Jack

Aulder Than The Internet This Radge
Sturgeon pretty much saying third wave...
I think it depends if you are a bit parochial or not. History will show a global chart, as it did for Spanish Flu, taking a global perspective of the waves.

A few cases in Leith, a couple of hundred in Edinburgh or a thousand or so in Scotland is a piss in the ocean when there's been around half a million worldwide today.

Having said that 100 years ago not many folk travelled further than their own town/city, there was no vaccine never mind one, or more, that was so wonderfully effective. Everything was much tighter, WW1 aside. Was there even a variant back then?

I'm no expert but I don't think globally we're going to see 3ish definitive ups and downs to the same degree as we saw with Spanish Flu. I think locally we're going to see a series of peaks and troughs steadily getting smaller as the vaccines roll out. Globally all these local peaks and troughs will merge but eventually they'll fade.
 

Jack

Aulder Than The Internet This Radge
Keep hearing this. How do we know for sure?
I suppose no-one knows for sure but if you look back in history all these virus type things fade into insignificance. Spanish Flu was the obvious big one but there's been mini panics that didn't quite catch, even recently bird and swine flu being examples.

Our standard flu mutates every year but we live with it, well most of us do and it's just an inconvenience for a few days if you catch it.
 
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