Covid -19 Graphs Scotland

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
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More positive Scottish graphs??????? and Scottish government seem to be applying the test, test, test mantra.✅

As Scotland cant protect the borders then you have to assume they just let it run once USA flights ?? and English??????? and European camper vans arrive and then manage any fall out that results.
 
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SlovSam

Bounce Radge
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Nice clear graphics here this time from the BBC.

I know its repetitive but these are clear well constructed graphs unlike many others so they deserve a mention.

It can't really be a surprise that you hammer testing and trace then after a time lag your number of cases begins to decline.

Flare ups and clusters will happen as will imported cases from travel and limited tourism which are still to come but Scotland??????? at the moment is in strong position to face these difficulties.
 
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Rocky

Bounce Radge
Some of those numbers look a little curious so I took a look at the Health Board level data. A few observations:
- The increase in hospital numbers comes wholly from suspected cases which are up by 147 (confirmed cases are down by 3).
- NHS Lothian suspected cases in hospital are the highest they've ever been at 238 (+91 on previous day). It's never been above 200 before. My suspicion is that there's some inconsistency in the definition of 'suspected' so these numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt.
- ICU patients in NHS Lothian have gone from less than 5 (they show an asterisk if a number is less than 5 so not sure what the exact number is) to 9 in the space of a day. Average has been around 6 ICU patients in NHS Lothian for the past month.
- No other health board has as many as 5 ICU cases.
- NHS Lothian has not had a positive test for Covid since 25 June (when there were 3)
- There was an increase of 10 positive tests since yesterday, of which 5 were in Dumfries and Galloway (they've not had a positive test since 20 June prior to that, wonder if it's just delayed reporting or is there an indication of a localised spike down that way?).
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
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Its not easy to read these graphs but once you get the hang of it then its very much positive news across the whole of Scotland.

The daft spike at the end is because of a lag in cases now added last week from a different testing method so they are old cases rather than new.✅
 

Rocky

Bounce Radge
Some of those numbers look a little curious so I took a look at the Health Board level data. A few observations:
- The increase in hospital numbers comes wholly from suspected cases which are up by 147 (confirmed cases are down by 3).
- NHS Lothian suspected cases in hospital are the highest they've ever been at 238 (+91 on previous day). It's never been above 200 before. My suspicion is that there's some inconsistency in the definition of 'suspected' so these numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt.
- ICU patients in NHS Lothian have gone from less than 5 (they show an asterisk if a number is less than 5 so not sure what the exact number is) to 9 in the space of a day. Average has been around 6 ICU patients in NHS Lothian for the past month.
- No other health board has as many as 5 ICU cases.
- NHS Lothian has not had a positive test for Covid since 25 June (when there were 3)
- There was an increase of 10 positive tests since yesterday, of which 5 were in Dumfries and Galloway (they've not had a positive test since 20 June prior to that, wonder if it's just delayed reporting or is there an indication of a localised spike down that way?).
I've had another look at the "suspected cases in hospital" data and I reckon it's definitely a bit pointless. According to the data files, ambulances are taking around 150 suspected Covid cases to hospital every day - so I think their definition of "suspected Covid" probably includes anyone displaying any of the known symptoms. So basically I reckon if you have a high temperature you'd be classed as "suspected Covid" under that measure. Anyone who's classed as suspected Covid probably stays classed as that until they've had a negative test result back (which presumably the vast majority do). So the big fluctuations in suspected cases are probably just to do with the administration of tests and the timing of updating the results when they come back in.

The confirmed cases in hospital have dropped by 11 today, which continues the downward trend. The split of the 8 new cases in today's data is Greater Glasgow & Clyde - 5, Dumfries & Galloway - 1, Grampian - 2. So another day with no positive cases in Lothian.
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
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Another very informative graph showing how far Scotland ??????? has come particularly in the densley populated central belt.

Its also noticeable how well the people of London??????? have done given this was the epicentre of the virus in the early days.✅
 

greencol

Skivin cooncil Radge
Bounce Radge
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Another very informative graph showing how far Scotland ??????? has come particularly in the densley populated central belt.

Its also noticeable how well the people of London??????? have done given this was the epicentre of the virus in the early days.✅
London's R number is now above one.
Just as the pubs , cinemas etc open
Could be a recipe for disaster.
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
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There seems enough evidence around to show that Scotland's??????? strategy of test, trace, isolate and then to contact potential carriers is functioning to a high enough standard to move to the next level.

That next level will be cluster outbreaks or super carriers via unprotected borders or dafties on a staggy.?

It gives Scotland's ??????? policy of eliminating the virus not merely controlling it a fighting chance ✅
 

SlovSam

Bounce Radge
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Nothing very new here but its a source of information that had not been loading properly for few weeks (for me anyway?).

Good to have it back.✅.

If you look at intensive care v hospital admissions over time it seems to indicate that the bar is now much lower about admitting patients to hospital.

In April 2020 1,800 patients were admitted of which 200 were in ICU. By July there was 700 patients in hospital? only 15 who were in ICU.

Next stage in this pandemic will be clusters and surges going by the experience of other countries so hopefully the graphologists and modellors develop visual aids to help understanding.
 
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SlovSam

Bounce Radge
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Financial Times with an interesting story but its behind a paywall.?

Its back to the bigger picture rather than just England??????? though as once international travel particularly USA opens?? up then Edinburgh and Glasgow airports just become transit stops for the virus to return.

I wonder if Scotland??????? has any real powers at all to police its own airports which is quite a bizarre question in itself.?
 
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Rocky

Bounce Radge
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Financial Times with an interesting story but its behind a paywall.?

Its back to the bigger picture rather than just England??????? though as once international travel particularly USA opens?? up then Edinburgh and Glasgow airports just become transit stops for the virus to return.

I wonder if Scotland??????? has any real powers at all to police its own airports which is quite a bizarre question in itself.?
That particular article isn't behind the paywall

 

Rocky

Bounce Radge

Not really sure what I think of this but thought I'd post here anyway seeing as it fits the bill of being a graph about Covid!

I suppose the hypothesis for Scotland, if the correlation is valid, is that a low number of vulnerable people lost their lives during the traditional flu season, leading to a higher number of people still being around who were particularly susceptible to Covid.
 
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