Scientist does not think border controls can currently stop new variants in UK - and worries vaccines may not be as effective against new Kent mutation
Dr Julian Tang, honorary associate professor/clinical virologist at the University of Leicester, is among the scientists to have responded to the mutation of the Kent variant - the so-called E484K mutation - and what it means for the UK.
This is what he had to say: "[It is] a worrying development, though not entirely unexpected.
"This is another reason to follow the COVID-19 restrictions/infection control measures more strictly - otherwise not only can the virus continue to spread, it can also evolve.
"Unfortunately, the lack of control of these different variants in the UK may lead this population to become a melting pot for different emerging SARS-COV-2/COVID-19 variants - so we really need to reduce our contact rates to reduce the opportunities for viral spread/replication to reduce the speed with which these different virus variants can evolve.
"Closing borders/restricting travel may help a little with this, but there is now probably already a sufficient critical mass of virus-infected people within the endemic UK population to allow this natural selection/evolution to proceed - as this report suggests - so we really need to stick to the COVID-19 lockdown restrictions as much as possible.
"If this E484K mutation is acquired by most of the UK B.1.1.7 variants - the recent reassurances from recent studies showing that the mRNA vaccines will still offer optimum protection against the original UK variant - may no longer apply."
looks like Westminster is now shitting itself with all the early vaccinations that have been made which are going to be pointless while the virus continues to mutate around the vaccine.
Viruses gonna virus, eh? Been saying it for months. So what now? New lockdowns for every variant? The idea that – in the guy's own words – "natural selection/evolution" can be prevented or even suppressed indefinitely by societal engineering is pissing in the wind, and always has been. The thing will mutate, regularly, forever. It is, quite literally, a part of the natural world. It cannot and will not ever be eliminated. Viruses are the ultimate survivors – they are like the Alien from the movies, it is their single and only purpose.
So now, already a YEAR down the line, if – and I stress "if" – vaccines start turning out to "no longer apply", and variants continue to proliferate unabated, then what will be the plan?
We could of course go the Australasia way and turn ourselves into a sort of elite penal colony, forever. Pity we can't just close
all the world's borders forever, but alas there's only a very few countries in the world that are a) islands, and b) have anywhere even approaching the capacity to be largely self-sufficient. Although I notice today that Perth, WA is back in lockdown again, masks mandatory, schools closed, etc.... Nevertheless, we could definitely have a go at that one.
Or we can continue to go the way we currently are, as a sort of elite open prison, forever, with the drawback that you can't just lie around and read all day. We must continue to work in our rented boxes, with our pointless jobs stripped of everything that made them bearable. And then we can entertain ourselves in our rented boxes too, with breaks for solo exercise and food shopping. We must never of course freely gather with our family and friends again, share meals, feel the touch of their hand on our arm, the comfort of a warm room full of voices and bodies, the invigoration of gatherings in all their forms. But we can watch stuff and buy stuff on the internet. We can see our people on our personal screens. The thought of years more of that 'new normal' really does have me seriously wondering: where would be the
meaning in such a life? What cost to children growing up this way? Already concern is growing for babies and toddlers who are undergoing fundamental development stages in an unsocialised, socially-distanced world. Not to mention (as I've posted earlier) the teens whose worlds have contracted to their homes and phones.
Or we can accept it, and start living with it, come what may. Changes in the
way we live seem inevitable – say, mask-wearing in supermarkets – but 'social distancing' cannot continue. It simply cannot.
I'm not saying I have the right answer, only that it seems to me that those will be the three choices remaining if – and again, I stress "IF" – the vaccines can only adapt and ameliorate the worst cases, much like vaccines have always done.
Aye, if the vaccines turn out to not be the magic bullet everyone seems to have thought they would be, then it's not just Westminster that'll be shitting itself – everyone will. And with good reason, because we will no longer be able to efface reality. The war analogies were always facile, precisely because this is not, and never was, a winnable war in the sense that a virus can be vanquished and done away with. The can will have been kicked to the end of the road. And we'll have to choose how we want to go on.
