Corona virus on its own thread.

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Purple & Green

Radge McRadge
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I know, you know, politicians in ever Capitalist nation in the World including Russia and China, Internationally scientists, capitalist Big Pharma money making Corporations, know that the nations where there have been little to no vaccinations taking place should be a priority to ensure this cycle of infection and deaths are booted into touch. Let your favourite politicians or scientists naval gaze. What a distraction from the big game in town. Several elephants in our small planet room.

BIG G

BIG G

This comes out when you press scientific experts on vaccinating children - it's clearly unethical to vaccinate children in the UK when so much of the adult population around the world is unvaccinated.

Someone cynical would say that was about Big Pharma looking to extend their first world markets. Not me obviously.
 

Rocky

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Interesting. On the 14 day after vaccination point, might that be deliberate and reasonable as it takes time for the vaccine to work?

When you consider the stats Smurf posted this morning, it's hard to get your head around what he's actually saying. Not that I'm dismissing it but those figures seem pretty conclusive (along with the numerous efficacy studies for each vaccine before release) that the un-vaccinated are much more likely to go to hospital, die etc. so not surprising that he's having difficulty getting traction wrt peer reviews etc.
I think I disagree with the fundamental premise in the paper which states that looking at "all cause mortality rate" of vaccinated vs unvaccinated is the best way to measure vaccine effectiveness. The two cohorts are completely different in one key respect - which is that you're much more likely to be vaccinated if you have underlying health conditions. If you think about the 20-59 age group, deaths are very much an exceptional circumstance and generally affect the most medically vulnerable - who of course were the very first to be offered, and most likely to accept, the vaccine. Conversely the young, fit people who don't see the need for a vaccine are unlikely to be at risk from any cause other than covid (excepting car accidents, suicide etc).

I didn't read it all though, so may have missed that point being covered.
 

joethehibby

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With a large increase in cases?
They knew a massive increase in cases was coming , therefore more deaths , but he sticks with his plan A . Meaning he’s prepared to accept the increase in deaths , is he not 🤷‍♂️On the other hand vaccination is the way to protect yourself , so if you choose not to , you run the risk 🤔
 

Jack

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I’m a former hospitality worker of many years standing. Still have many colleagues in the game. Their mainly young staff are horrified if they get a positive test: not because of the virus, but because even though there’s fuckall wrong with them, they’re expected to use annual leave to self-isolate, or even unpaid leave. Absolutely mental.

That's outrageous. I suspect if the managers of those who are doing the expecting found out they'd get their arses severely kicked.

How can they? The government hasn’t put any support in place for them. They will most likely get statutory sick pay which works out at around £19/£20 per day or they take holidays and receive full pay

You're probably right. Hospitality bosses, some of them, seem to believe they are somehow above all this science stuff.

I don't know how it works but I understand there's a £500 grant for people affected.
I'm not a regular reader of the Dundee Courier but happened to see this.


I've been thinking about this over the last couple of days and think it's absolutely outrageous that anyone is forced or coerced into working, particularly in a public facing role, against government guidance.

It's the sort of thing that could really hammer public confidence in going out to play. The two bars I use regularly follow the rules, staff take pre shift lfts, there's all the distancing stuff etc.. But we all know of bars who have willingly flouted the rules and been responsible for mini outbreaks.

Anyway, as I said earlier, I hope this Dundee lot and any others get a good doing!
 

greencol

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Ha!

This very morning I got PCR results which say I am positive, despite negative LFTs on numerous occasions in the last 3 weeks. I only got a PCR because I briefly met someone on NYD who went on to test positive. No symptoms whatsoever despite my advancing years.

So, despite the accuracy figures getting quoted, I share your concerns!
I've been doing LFT daily for months now. Always negative.
My daughter did LFT from Hogmanay onward until she and her partner started with sore throats on Tuesday. Still negative LFT on Tuesday.
Got PCR's on Tuesday. Results on Wednesday . Positive.
Beginning to wonder about their reliability.
Unless as one Doctor I heard say 'Many people are using LFT wrongly'?
I follow the instructions to the letter. Dont know what to think?
 

joethehibby

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I've been doing LFT daily for months now. Always negative.
My daughter did LFT from Hogmanay onward until she and her partner started with sore throats on Tuesday. Still negative LFT on Tuesday.
Got PCR's on Tuesday. Results on Wednesday . Positive.
Beginning to wonder about their reliability.
Unless as one Doctor I heard say 'Many people are using LFT wrongly'?
I follow the instructions to the letter. Dont know what to think?
May be the amount of liquid in capsule , doesn’t seem enough to me 🤷‍♂️
The newe kits seem to have more and instructions are different . Just up nose and 4 drops in test stick thingy
 

Davy

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Report on bbc website today saying how not so long ago hospitals were complaining of being over run by flu which was killing 300 a day..seems like swings and roundabouts
 

Rocky

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I've been doing LFT daily for months now. Always negative.
My daughter did LFT from Hogmanay onward until she and her partner started with sore throats on Tuesday. Still negative LFT on Tuesday.
Got PCR's on Tuesday. Results on Wednesday . Positive.
Beginning to wonder about their reliability.
Unless as one Doctor I heard say 'Many people are using LFT wrongly'?
I follow the instructions to the letter. Dont know what to think?
There's a fair bit of confusion about LFT accuracy - the thing is that there are two different sides to accuracy:

Sensitivity - how likely it is to detect the virus if it's present in your system

Specificity - if it tells you you're positive, how likely it is that this is a true positive

Estimates for LFTs for Sensitivity vary from about 40% upwards depending on how well the test is conducted. It seems they're probably about 70%+ effective if the person doing the test follows the instructions to the letter.

When it comes to Specificity they're very very accurate (like 99.97%). If it tells you you're positive then it's virtually certain you are.

However it's also worth bearing in mind that PCR tests are very very sensitive indeed (to the extent that they'll still detect virus in your system for potentially three months after being infected). They achieve this by multiplying the virus in your sample multiple times until it can be detected - I think they go through something like 32 amplification cycles, and if virus shows up after 25 or so amplifications then it reports as a positive.

So with a positive PCR it's possible that you have a very small amount of virus in your system (at the time of the test) and therefore it's unlikely that you're transmitting too much of the virus either (at that precise point in time). Obviously if you've only just contracted the virus then that amount is going to increase rapidly so an early PCR test takes you out of circulation before you can spread it too far.

No-one really knows for sure whether LFTs are good enough to pick up on everyone who has high enough viral loads to be passing the virus on. But they should be pretty good at picking up the people with the highest viral loads and who are therefore most likely to be transmitting it.

I know it's just an anecdote, but when my daughter tested positive on LFT and was confirmed by PCR, I continued to test her every day or two on the LFTs and could see the line getting gradually fainter each time.

Having said all that, I'm curious about how good they are with Omicron - from what I've read Omicron multiplies mostly in the upper respiratory tract (a good thing as it's avoiding the lungs more now, although it seems that this shift may make it more dangerous for young children) - which makes me wonder whether the new tests which only go up your hooter are maybe missing virus that a throat swab would pick up on.
 

Rocky

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Report on bbc website today saying how not so long ago hospitals were complaining of being over run by flu which was killing 300 a day..seems like swings and roundabouts
There's a weird thing that happens where Flu & Pneumonia get lumped together as if they're the same thing and then get reported like that. Flu directly is only about 5% of those numbers, about 1,500 deaths in 2018 in the UK.

In reality the vast majority of these will actually be essentially old age. Doctors are discouraged from putting old age as a cause of death so things like pneumonia end up on a lot of death certificates. The reality is that, although it may sound callous, when someone approaches end of life, something has to be the 'final straw'. I'm not minimising the impact that has on folk, but it remains pretty difficult to tell how many covid deaths are a result of bringing forward a death that was going to happen soon anyway (I know that sounds horrific, can't really think of a better way to say it).

 

Smurf

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In 2017-2018 we had 50,000 excess deaths in the UK attributed to influenza. With the benefit of hindsight should we have had restrictions/lockdown to mitigate that risk?
 

Purple & Green

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I've been doing LFT daily for months now. Always negative.
My daughter did LFT from Hogmanay onward until she and her partner started with sore throats on Tuesday. Still negative LFT on Tuesday.
Got PCR's on Tuesday. Results on Wednesday . Positive.
Beginning to wonder about their reliability.
Unless as one Doctor I heard say 'Many people are using LFT wrongly'?
I follow the instructions to the letter. Dont know what to think?
Another day. Another lft. another negative result. Same for everyone in my house. Possible I’ve had covid at start of December I suppose and it’s a lingering result.
 

Purple & Green

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greencol

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If he’s right and we need boosters every month, what then?
Then he's a genius.
Virologists from every corner are working on this and are struggling to find solutions or answers to every new strain that comes along.
Maybe he will be proved correct? But it hardly seems likely.
 

joethehibby

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In 2017-2018 we had 50,000 excess deaths in the UK attributed to influenza. With the benefit of hindsight should we have had restrictions/lockdown to mitigate that risk?
Apparently flu problems down dramatically this year , putting it down to mask wearing and hygeine . Prob add in more people getting flu vaccine 🤷‍♂️
 

Rocky

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In 2017-2018 we had 50,000 excess deaths in the UK attributed to influenza. With the benefit of hindsight should we have had restrictions/lockdown to mitigate that risk?
From ONS link above:

Influenza​


DateTotal
mortality
EnglandWalesEngland
and Wales
Resident outside
England and Wales
20181,5981,523731,5962
20191,2231,160531,21310
 
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